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Layer 2: Growth Model

See the system index for how this layer fits the whole system.

Purpose

Define the one number that means we are winning, the handful of inputs that move it, and the guardrails that keep us honest. The growth model is the central operating artifact of the system. Everything in the engine and the learning system exists to move this number.

Research lineage

  • Reforge, Growth Loops are the New Funnels. Funnels leak and do not compound; loops feed the output of one cohort back in as the input to the next. Fast companies run on one or two major loops.
  • Amplitude, Good vs Bad North Star Metric. A North Star captures customer value, sits within marketing's influence, and leads revenue. If you can move it directly, it is not a good North Star. Vanity metrics and lagging metrics (revenue, downloads, pageviews) are poor choices.
  • Sean Ellis, Hacking Growth. The North Star is the value moment; the inputs are the growth levers.

The two modes

This layer takes a different shape depending on the mode (see the README's "Two modes" section).

  • Cold-start (funnel). North Star: move-ins per month, on a pace that fills the building to roughly 90% by the financing deadline. Inputs are the funnel stages we can move (visit volume, on-ramp conversion, close rate). This is what the playbook currently carries. It is also, plainly, where we are struggling right now: filling Salem is the live problem, and it falls directly inside this document's subject matter. Getting the cold-start North Star and its inputs defined well is not academic; it is the thing that should turn the Salem effort from anecdote into something we can steer.
  • Flywheel (loop). North Star: the compounding metric for a full market, where existing members generate the next ones through referral, community, and waitlist. Not yet defined.

What plugs in here

  • Cold-start North Star and inputs: cold-start-fill-playbook.md and goals-and-kpis.md.
  • Guardrails: guardrails.md.

The cold-start North Star and inputs (defined)

North Star: lockout move-ins per month, on pace to fill the building to ~90% occupancy (the refinancing threshold). It captures the value moment (a band gets a real room), sits within marketing's influence, and leads revenue without being revenue itself.

Inputs (the levers we move):

  1. First visits booked (tours and free-hours claims). The top-of-funnel volume lever, and the binding constraint today.
  2. Demand-to-visit rate. The share of leads and claims that become a booked visit.
  3. Visit-to-lockout close rate. ~80% on tours (community-manager reported); rarely the constraint, so most experiments target visit volume, not this.

Guardrails (counter-metrics): junk-lead rate; CAC against a generous ceiling (LTV ~$16k Portland-measured, so we are not CAC-bound); member durability / early churn. Each is a counter-metric so a North Star win that breaks one shows up.

The method that moves these is the cold-start playbook; per-building targets and the back-calc live in each instance (Salem is populated); metric definitions and the LTV figure are in goals-and-kpis.md. The flywheel mode below has its own North Star, still to be defined.

Gaps and next steps

  • Done (2026-06-23): the cold-start North Star and its inputs are pinned above, with guardrails stated as counter-metrics.
  • The flywheel loop metric still has no home. Define it when Portland expansion work resumes (it is for full markets, not the cold-start need in front of us).
  • Optional: mirror the counter-metric framing into guardrails.md so each guardrail names the North Star win it guards against.

Drift fixed (2026-06-23 audit): goals-and-kpis.md carried a stale ~$12,000 LTV; it now reads ~$16,000, Portland-measured and flagged as not yet trusted in new markets.